ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2003 SATELLITE T NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE 5.5 TO 6.0...102 TO 115 KT...BUT THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS BECOME COLDER AND MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE THEN. THE LATEST RAW ODT ESTIMATE WAS NEAR 130 KT. RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140 KT. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 125 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...EYEWALL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY AND SO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE TO BE EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS A BAND OF WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WHICH MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND IN 36-48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO ELIMINATE THESE WESTERLIES. FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/10...TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUED RIGHTWARD TREND OF THE STORM HEADING THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE IMPACT OF FABIAN IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO LARGE SWELLS AND/OR DANGEROUS SURF. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS...WHICH WERE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ERODES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO RULE OUT SOME IMPACT OF FABIAN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NORTHWARD. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.1N 57.8W 125 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.6N 59.4W 125 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 20.5N 61.0W 125 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W 120 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 64.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 26.5N 66.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 68.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 38.0N 68.0W 90 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC