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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2003
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 120 KT...PENDING ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION THIS AFTERNOON.  WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.  THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
A STRONG HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO CHANGES IN
STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY BE DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES SUCH AS
EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. AT PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF AN
OUTER EYEWALL THAT WOULD TEMPORARILY RESULT IN WEAKENING.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THINKING.  A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA
IS PREDICTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD
BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN...AND CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TAKE A
MORE NORTHWARD HEADING.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS TURN...WITH THE ENSEMBLE DEFINED BY THE NOGAPS ON THE RIGHT
AND THE CANADIAN MODEL ON THE LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL...AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 18.9N  56.8W   120 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.2N  58.3W   120 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  60.2W   120 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N  62.0W   120 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 22.3N  63.6W   115 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 25.0N  66.0W   110 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 29.0N  68.5W   105 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 34.5N  69.0W    95 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC