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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003
 
FABIAN HAS EVOLVED INTO A CLASSIC INTENSE HURRICANE AS SEEN IN THE
LAST FEW VISIBLE AND EVENING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME CIRCULAR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL...AND HAS EXPANDED TO THE WEST.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND 140 KT FROM AFWA. THE 3-H OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER IS ALSO 127
KT. THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT CLOUD
TOPS HAVE ALSO WARMED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST HAS ERODED SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 120 KT. AIR FORCE
RECON WILL BE IN AROUND 06Z AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RATHER
INTERESTING INTENSITY DATA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 33N LATITUDE AND EXTENDING
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP FABIAN MOVING
IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...
THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD TO NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOW FABIAN
TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE AMOUNT OF EROSION VARIES
WITH THE NOGAPS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS ERODING THE
RIDGE THE LEAST. THE UKMET AND GFDL ARE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NOGAPS MODELS. THE NOGAPS SOLUTION SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE
CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BASED ON 500 MB HEIGHTS
OF NEAR 5900 M REPORTED BY THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT NEAR 30N
LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A TAD FASTER AND SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...GFS CONSENSUS.
 
SINCE FABIAN IS NEARING CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY...THERE IS NOT MUCH
MORE ROOM FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
AND HIGH SSTS...INNER-CORE EYE DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREFORE...LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. BY 96-120 HOURS...THE LARGE-SCALE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO RESTRICT/INHIBIT THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST...SO SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH BRINGS FABIAN DOWN TO 77 KT IN 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS
APPEARS TO BE SELF-INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SINCE THE GFS MODEL
LAGS FABIAN'S 200 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST BY 120-180 NMI.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 18.5N  54.8W   120 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.9N  56.4W   125 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 19.6N  58.6W   120 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N  60.6W   120 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 21.5N  62.5W   120 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 24.3N  65.7W   115 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 27.5N  68.0W   115 KT
120HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N  70.0W   110 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC