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Hurricane FABIAN (Text)

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003
 
LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY OF FABIAN SHOWS A SLIGHTLY RAGGED LOOK TO
THE COLDEST CLOUDTOP TEMPERATURES SURROUNDING THE EYE.  THIS IS
PROBABLY ONLY TEMPORARY BUT HAS ARRESTED ANY CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL REMAIN AT 6.0. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 110 KT.
 
FABIAN IS NOW MOVING ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 11 KT
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS COURSE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE HAS
CHANGED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF FABIAN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NORTH OF FABIAN AND ALLOW IT TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE DEGREE
TO WHICH THE TROUGH DEEPENS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH NOGAPS BEING MOST
AGGRESSIVE... DEVELOPING A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH AND ALLOWING FABIAN
TO TURN NORTH SOONER. GFS AND UKMET NOT INDICATING AS DEEP A TROUGH
AND REMAIN THE TWO SOUTHERN MOST TRACKS.  THE GFDL FALLS IN
BETWEEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
 
AFTER THE TEMPORARY PAUSE IN INTENSIFICATION AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR FABIAN NOT TO STRENGTHEN A BIT
MORE WITH A FORECAST OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. BOTH
SHIPS AND GFDL ARE INDICATING SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AS WELL.
 

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 18.0N  51.9W   110 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N  53.6W   115 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 19.3N  55.8W   120 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 20.1N  57.8W   120 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 21.0N  59.8W   120 KT
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 23.4N  63.3W   120 KT
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 26.3N  65.4W   120 KT
120HR VT     05/0600Z 29.5N  67.0W   120 KT
 
 
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