Hurricane FABIAN
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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003
LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY OF FABIAN SHOWS A SLIGHTLY RAGGED LOOK TO
THE COLDEST CLOUDTOP TEMPERATURES SURROUNDING THE EYE. THIS IS
PROBABLY ONLY TEMPORARY BUT HAS ARRESTED ANY CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL REMAIN AT 6.0. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 110 KT.
FABIAN IS NOW MOVING ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 11 KT
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS COURSE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE HAS
CHANGED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF FABIAN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NORTH OF FABIAN AND ALLOW IT TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE DEGREE
TO WHICH THE TROUGH DEEPENS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH NOGAPS BEING MOST
AGGRESSIVE... DEVELOPING A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH AND ALLOWING FABIAN
TO TURN NORTH SOONER. GFS AND UKMET NOT INDICATING AS DEEP A TROUGH
AND REMAIN THE TWO SOUTHERN MOST TRACKS. THE GFDL FALLS IN
BETWEEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
AFTER THE TEMPORARY PAUSE IN INTENSIFICATION AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR FABIAN NOT TO STRENGTHEN A BIT
MORE WITH A FORECAST OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. BOTH
SHIPS AND GFDL ARE INDICATING SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AS WELL.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 18.0N 51.9W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 18.5N 53.6W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 19.3N 55.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 20.1N 57.8W 120 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 21.0N 59.8W 120 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 23.4N 63.3W 120 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 26.3N 65.4W 120 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 29.5N 67.0W 120 KT
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