Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003
 
INFRARED IMAGERY OF FABIAN CONTINUES TO IMPRESS THIS EVENING WITH
DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND A VERY TIGHT...10 NM
DIAMETER EYE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
AIR FORCE GLOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ARE NOW AT 6.0. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 110 KT. 
 
FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT
ABOUT 11 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THIS COURSE THORUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF FABIAN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATING A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE WILL HELP TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF FABIAN
AND ALLOW IT TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. DEGREE TO WHICH THE TROUGH
DEEPENS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH NOGAPS MOST AGGRESSIVE... DEVELOPING
A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH AND ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN NORTH SOONER.
CONVERSELY...GFS NOT INDICATING AS DEEP A TROUGH AND REMAINS THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACK OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
LIES BETWEEN A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO THE EAST AND THE
GFS TO THE WEST.

THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR FABIAN NOT TO STRENGTHEN A BIT
MORE WITH A FORECAST FOR LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...28
DEGREES CELSIUS. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL ARE INDICATING SOME
STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AS WELL.

RADIUS OF 12 FOOT SEAS IS ALSO BEING INCREASED TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS BASED ON A SHIP
OBSERVATION OF SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FEET ABOUT 190 NM FROM THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR THE LARGER RADII COMES FROM
TROPICAL CYCLONE WAVE MODEL OUTPUTS THAT INDICATED A LARGER RADII
OF 12 FT SEAS NORTH OF FABIAN.
 
FORECASTER HOLWEG/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 17.7N  50.8W   110 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 18.1N  52.5W   115 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.6N  54.7W   120 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 19.2N  57.1W   120 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 20.1N  59.2W   120 KT
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 22.5N  63.0W   120 KT
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 25.0N  66.0W   120 KT
120HR VT     05/0000Z 28.0N  68.0W   120 KT
 
 
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