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Hurricane FABIAN (Text)

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003
 
FABIAN HAS AN OUTSTANDING CLOUD PATTERN...TYPICAL OF MAJOR
HURRICANES. 

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FABIAN HAS DEVELOPED
A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION.  IN
ADDITION...THERE ARE PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL
ESTABLISHED. T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING
WINDS OF 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES FABIAN A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF
THE SEASON. THERE ARE NO APPARENT REASONS FOR FABIAN NOT TO GAIN
ADDITIONAL STRENGTH SINCE THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE LOW AND THE MODELS INTENSIFY THE HURRICANE. HOWEVER... THERE
ARE SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THESE UNFAVORABLE WINDS MAY INSTEAD IMPEDE
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMOVING
THESE WESTERLIES TOO QUICKLY AND THESE WINDS ARE STILL THERE. 

FABIAN HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN THE WEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE HURRICANE IS NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE U.S. EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WOULD 
MAINTAIN FABIAN ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
72 HOURS. 

ON THE LONG RANGE...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER
FABIAN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE
SOUTHERMOST TRACK AS IT DID IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFDL AND THE REST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A
LITTLE SOONER.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 17.4N  49.8W   100 KT
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.7N  51.6W   105 KT
 24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.0N  54.2W   110 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.5N  56.5W   110 KT
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  59.0W   110 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  62.0W   110 KT
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  65.5W   110 KT
120HR VT     04/1800Z 26.5N  68.0W   110 KT
 
 
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