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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003

FABIAN SHOWS GOOD ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO
-80C NEAR THE CENTER AND EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THE EYE SEEN IN EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES IS NOT
CURRENTLY APPARENT IN IR IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 90 KT FROM TAB...77 KT FROM AFWA...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS PERHAPS A TOUCH TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
MOTION...285/13.  FABIAN REMAINS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 72-96 HR.  AFTER THAT
TIME...LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE RIDGE TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP FABIAN ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72-96 HR...
WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION THEREAFTER.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 120
HR FORECAST POSITION IS SOUTHWEST OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL.

FABIAN REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS FORECAST CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR.  IT IS NOT
OBVIOUS WHY THESE MODELS STOP STRENGTHENING THE STORM AT 48 HR...
BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO ALONG WITH THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
TIME BEING.  ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR FABIAN IS THE LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 18N-32N W OF 55W.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS FABIAN APPROACHES.  HOWEVER...IF IT
DOES NOT OR WEAKENS SLOWER THAN FORECAST...IT MIGHT CAUSE INCREASED
SHEAR OVER FABIAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 16.8N  47.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 17.4N  49.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 18.0N  51.8W    80 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.6N  54.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.2N  56.1W    90 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N  59.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 22.0N  63.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     04/0600Z 24.5N  66.5W    90 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC