Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CDO. THE OUTFLOW
HAS ALSO IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FABIAN HAS REACHED HURRICANE STATUS WITH 65
KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW BY THE SHIPS MODEL BUT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOW A PERSISTENT BAND OF UPPER-LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE
...AS THE MODELS INDICATE...AND TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT THE
GFDL MAKES FABIAN A 104-KNOT HURRICANE...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.
A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD
PROVIDE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A LARGE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES RESULTING IN A TRACK
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE. ONLY THE BAM MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SHOWING A
WESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE
UNIFORM DEEP-LAYER WESTWARD FLOW THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 15.7N  45.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N  47.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N  50.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 18.0N  52.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N  55.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  58.0W    90 KT
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N  61.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     03/1800Z 22.0N  65.0W    90 KT
 
 
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