Tropical Depression TEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2003

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...BUT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER
RAGGED-LOOKING AND THERE HAS BEEN AN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER.  AN SSM/I IMAGE FROM 1017Z SHOWED THE ERODED AREA
AS A LARGE HOLE NEAR 15.6N36W...AND ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGES
INDICATED THAT THIS HOLE WAS NORTH OF THE ACTUAL CENTER.  WE WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THE CLOUD PATTERN GET JUST A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
BEFORE NAMING THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY
WARM AND THERE IS MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGHTENING...AND THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
PREDICTING INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY IN 3-5 DAYS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...275/18.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG
30-35N LATITUDE SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.  THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE NEAR 24N48W WHICH IS CREATING A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
INFLUENCE ON THE MOTION OTHER THAN TO SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED
SOMEWHAT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE GFS SOLUTION.  THE GFDL...U.K.
MET. OFFICE...AND NOGAPS TRACKS ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE NHC TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 15.1N  37.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.4N  39.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.8N  42.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.4N  44.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 16.9N  47.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 17.7N  51.3W    55 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  56.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N  61.1W    65 KT
 
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