ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2003 CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS INDICTED BY THE WIDE ARRAY OF SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 SWIRL AREAS THAT ARE BEING IDENTIFIED AS CENTERS THAT WOULD RANGE IN FORWARD SPEEDS OF 18 TO 25 KT. I AM NOT SEEING ANY INDICATION THAT TD 10 IS ACCELERATING TO 25 KT...SO I HAVE USED CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK SPEED AND CONSERVATIVE FEATURES IN THE CLOUD PATTERN IN BOTH INFRARED AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND A 28/0233Z TRMM OVERPASS. THIS KEEPS THE CENTER ABOUT 60 NMI EAST OF THE COLDEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD TO 30 KT DESPITE A SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SINCE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION AND THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND EARLIER BANDING FEATURES HAVING BECOME MORE RAGGED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER..UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/18. THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD JOG IS LIKELY DUE TO AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RESUME A MOTION OF 275 DEGREES. THE STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH EXTENDS UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH ALONG 31N LATITUDE ...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE NEW RUN INDICATING A DEEPER AND MORE REPRESENTATIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW AND STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET MAINTAINS A SHALLOW WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVES MORE POLEWARD AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS NORTH OF THE GFS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND DEEP BAM. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... THEN AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT THEN LESS THAN THE 79 KT IT FORECASTS BY 120 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO DRY MID-LEVEL AIR POSSIBLY BECOMING A FACTOR. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.7N 35.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.9N 37.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 15.4N 40.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 15.9N 43.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 45.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 31/0600Z 17.4N 49.8W 60 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 18.0N 54.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 19.0N 59.5W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC