Tropical Depression TEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2003
 
CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS INDICTED BY THE
WIDE ARRAY OF SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 SWIRL
AREAS THAT ARE BEING IDENTIFIED AS CENTERS THAT WOULD RANGE IN
FORWARD SPEEDS OF 18 TO 25 KT. I AM NOT SEEING ANY INDICATION THAT
TD 10 IS ACCELERATING TO 25 KT...SO I HAVE USED CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS TRACK SPEED AND CONSERVATIVE FEATURES IN THE CLOUD PATTERN
IN BOTH INFRARED AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND A 28/0233Z
TRMM OVERPASS. THIS KEEPS THE CENTER ABOUT 60 NMI EAST OF THE
COLDEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD TO 30 KT DESPITE
A SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SINCE THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION AND THE INNER-CORE
CONVECTION AND EARLIER BANDING FEATURES HAVING BECOME MORE RAGGED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER..UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/18. THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD JOG IS LIKELY
DUE TO AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RESUME A MOTION OF 275 DEGREES. THE STRONG
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH EXTENDS UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH ALONG 31N LATITUDE
...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE NEW RUN INDICATING A DEEPER
AND MORE REPRESENTATIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT WILL BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW AND STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET MAINTAINS A SHALLOW WEAK SYSTEM THAT
MOVES MORE POLEWARD AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS
NORTH OF THE GFS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND DEEP BAM.
 
SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...
THEN AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72
HOURS...BUT THEN LESS THAN THE 79 KT IT FORECASTS BY 120 HOURS.
THIS IS DUE TO DRY MID-LEVEL AIR POSSIBLY BECOMING A FACTOR.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 14.7N  35.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.9N  37.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 15.4N  40.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 15.9N  43.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N  45.7W    50 KT
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 17.4N  49.8W    60 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N  54.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 19.0N  59.5W    65 KT
 
 
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