Tropical Depression TEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN 28 DEGREES C AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
WEAK.  VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...AND THE LEVELLING
OFF OF THE MAX WINDS SHOWN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS MOSTLY A
REFLECTION OF OUR GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTS IN THE
3- TO 5-DAY RANGE. 

THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND IS MOVING ABOUT
270/17.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  THIS TRACK IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND U.K. MET
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IS ALSO A VERY TYPICAL ONE FOR
LATE AUGUST.  THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...HOWEVER.  IF THE
SYSTEM NEAR 20N44W BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT COULD CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND RESULT IN A
MORE NORTHWARD THAN EXPECTED TRACK. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 14.6N  31.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.1N  34.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 15.6N  37.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 16.1N  40.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N  43.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.5N  48.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N  52.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  56.0W    50 KT
 
 
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