Tropical Depression TEN
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN 28 DEGREES C AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
WEAK. VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...AND THE LEVELLING
OFF OF THE MAX WINDS SHOWN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS MOSTLY A
REFLECTION OF OUR GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTS IN THE
3- TO 5-DAY RANGE.
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND IS MOVING ABOUT
270/17. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS TRACK IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND U.K. MET
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IS ALSO A VERY TYPICAL ONE FOR
LATE AUGUST. THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...HOWEVER. IF THE
SYSTEM NEAR 20N44W BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT COULD CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND RESULT IN A
MORE NORTHWARD THAN EXPECTED TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 14.6N 31.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.1N 34.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 15.6N 37.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 16.1N 40.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 16.5N 43.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 17.5N 48.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 18.5N 52.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 56.0W 50 KT
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