Tropical Depression NINE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003
 
SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D INDICATE
THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER
APPEARS TO BE PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION...WITH A MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED IN
THE CONVECTION.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/11.  THE
DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 36-48 HR AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTH.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS.  IN THE
SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WITH SOME DECELERATION AFTER 36-48 HR.  THIS
IS AGREED ON BY MOST GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
SCENARIO.  IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY MOTION FOR THE CYCLONE...AS THEY ARE SLOWER
TO MOVE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. INTO
THE ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
AFTER 72 HR...BUT ANY BIG CHANGES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U. S. RIDGE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A
VARIETY OF FORECAST EVOLUTIONS FROM THE VERY FAVORABLE TO
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE.  THE PRESENCE OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ALSO
COMPLICATES MATTERS.  ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
HISPANIOLA...WHICH WOULD WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. 
ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT WOULD MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF HISPANIOLA...
BUT INCREASE THE TIME SPENT OVER CUBA AND THUS SLOW OR STOP
INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL IN HISPNIOLA...WITH STRENGTHENING
RESUMING AFTER THE CYCLONE LEAVES THE ISLAND.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 15.9N  68.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.8N  69.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.9N  71.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 19.0N  73.2W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N  74.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N  77.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 24.0N  78.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N  80.0W    60 KT
 
 
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