ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERIKA HAS REACHED THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE PAST 6 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE AND TAMPICO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MONTERREY AND SALTILLO INDICATE WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS. THIS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT ERIKA IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/12. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERIKA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... POSSIBLY REACHING THE PACIFIC IN 24-36 HR. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERIKA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO DUE TO THE REMAINING UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 24.8N 100.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 17/1200Z 24.4N 102.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC