Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003
 
SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF ERIKA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND IS BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SO...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...ERIKA MAY CAUSE HEAVY RAINS
PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
 
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ERIKA MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
HURRICANE STATUS AT LANDFALL. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC
WERE ON THE RANGE OF 4.0 AND 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN
ADDITION...HIGH RESOLUTION DOPPLER WIND DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE
REPORTED PEAK WINDS OF 91 KNOTS AT 2500 FEET WITHIN A SMALL AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS
CORRESPONDS TO AT LEAST 65 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE 987 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE AND THE CLOSED EYEWALL
REPORTED BY THE RECON.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 25.3N  98.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 25.0N 100.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATING
 
 
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