Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/16.  AL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A
CONTINUED WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AFTER WHICH DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO.  THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A NORTHWEST TURN AFTER 24 HOURS WHILE THE NOGAPS DOES NOT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES DECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT.  THE
INITIAL POSITION HAS THE CENTER WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST
JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CENTER WILL BE INLAND SHORTLY.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN MONITORING ERIKA AND THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERIKA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 60 KNOTS.  ALSO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A FEW MB TO 994
MB.  EVEN SO...THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
DOPPLER WINDS TO 80 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WINDS ALMOST AS
HIGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SO ERIKA IS CLOSE TO BEING A
HURRICANE.  WE MAY NEVER KNOW FOR SURE WHETHER THE WINDS WERE 60 OR
65 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER.  FIVE KNOTS IS IN THE NOISE LEVEL.
FINALLY...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE IS ABOUT OVER
AS MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND
 
ERIKA SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 25.5N  97.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 25.3N  99.3W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 25.5N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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