Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003

CORRECT CLAUDETTE TO ERIKA IN FIRST PARAGRAPH
 
WSR-88D DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES THAT ERIKA HAS DEVELOPED
A ROUGHLY 30 NM WIDE EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC SURROUNDING CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MINIMUM PRESSURE JUST
EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
992 MB...AS THE EYE DROP REPORTING 998 MB APPARENTLY MISSED THE
CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 67 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AT 700 MB.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/18.  ERIKA IS SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
GET LEFT BEHIND BY ERIKA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE MUCH DECELERATION
CAN OCCUR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A GRADUALLY DECELERATING WESTWARD MOTION
UNTIL ERIKA DISSIPATES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

ERIKA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE STORM IS
IN A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. INDEED...ALL
FIVE OF THE EXPERIMENTAL CRITERIA FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHIPS MODEL ARE MET.  THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION
IS THAT THE STORM SHOULD RUN AGROUND IN 6-9 HR.  ERIKA WILL LIKELY
MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-70 KT HURRICANE...BUT IF A BURST OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS IT COULD BE STRONGER.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR
AFTER LANDFALL AS ERIKA MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR ERIKA ARE AVAILABLE AT THE
TPC/NHC WEB SITE...WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...SELECT ERIKA GRAPHICS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 26.0N  95.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 26.0N 101.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 26.0N 104.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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