Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ERIKA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003

CORRECT CLAUDETTE TO ERIKA IN FIRST PARAGRAPH
 
WSR-88D DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES THAT ERIKA HAS DEVELOPED
A ROUGHLY 30 NM WIDE EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC SURROUNDING CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MINIMUM PRESSURE JUST
EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
992 MB...AS THE EYE DROP REPORTING 998 MB APPARENTLY MISSED THE
CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 67 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AT 700 MB.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/18.  ERIKA IS SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
GET LEFT BEHIND BY ERIKA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE MUCH DECELERATION
CAN OCCUR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A GRADUALLY DECELERATING WESTWARD MOTION
UNTIL ERIKA DISSIPATES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

ERIKA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE STORM IS
IN A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. INDEED...ALL
FIVE OF THE EXPERIMENTAL CRITERIA FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHIPS MODEL ARE MET.  THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION
IS THAT THE STORM SHOULD RUN AGROUND IN 6-9 HR.  ERIKA WILL LIKELY
MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-70 KT HURRICANE...BUT IF A BURST OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS IT COULD BE STRONGER.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR
AFTER LANDFALL AS ERIKA MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR ERIKA ARE AVAILABLE AT THE
TPC/NHC WEB SITE...WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...SELECT ERIKA GRAPHICS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 26.0N  95.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 26.0N 101.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 26.0N 104.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC