Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003
 
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERIKA IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS LARGE CURVED
BANDS...GOOD OUTFLOW AND VERY STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000
MB BUT MAX WIND AT 850 MB ARE 57 KNOTS SO FAR. THIS CORRESPONDS
WITH 45 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL
AGENCIES SUGGEST 55 KNOT WINDS. ASSUMING THAT THE AIRPLANE HAS NOT
SAMPLED THE MAXIMUM WINDS YET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF BOTH SATELLITE AND RECON ESTIMATES.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT IT
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPEDE INTENSIFICATION. ERIKA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 19 KNOTS.  A PERSISTENT LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL LIKELY FORCE
ERIKA TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE HIGH IS SO STRONG THAT
ERIKA COULD EVEN MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS SUGGESTED BY
SOME TRACK MODELS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ERIKA TO
THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MAY OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.
 
NOTE: ALTHOUGH ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-KNOT
HURRICANE...INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN. THE FORMATION OF AN
INNER CORE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT BASICALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST...COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS AT
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR ERIKA ARE AVAILABLE
AT THE TPC/NHC WEB SITE...WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...SELECT ERIKA GRAPHICS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 26.0N  93.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  96.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 26.0N 103.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N 106.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     18/1800Z...INLAND
 
 
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