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Tropical Storm ERIKA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/21...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS
INDICATE A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASING TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  THIS TRACK
BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE COAST IN 36 HOURS AND INLAND IN 48 HOURS.
IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE WHY THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD DECREASE SO MUCH
AS THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE STORM EMBEDDED WESTWARD DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  PERHAPS
A RIDGE IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM OR THE ANTICYCLONE
MAY BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN.  IN ANY CASE...ALL OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THIS SLOWING DOWN AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND 50 KT AT A LOCATION 60 N MI NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER AT 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL AND 1008 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THIS DATA.  THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD ON INFRARED IMAGERY WITH
A BANDING FEATURE AROUND THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND ANOTHER STARTING
TO EXTEND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE CENTER IS VERY NEAR BUOY 42001
AT THIS TIME.
 
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST MODEST STRENGTHENING BUT NOT TO HURRICANE
FORCE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL DOES AND ALSO SHOWS
THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAPID DEEPENING.  SO A FORECAST OF 65 KT
BEFORE LANDFALL STILL WORKS.  MY ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER TO PUT UP
A HURRICANE WARNING OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING THIS MORNING.  THE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET IS A HURRICANE WARNING.  LETS GO WITH TROPICAL STORM
WARNING...TO BE UPGRADED LATER IF THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING IS
OBSERVED TO BEGIN.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 26.3N  89.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 26.2N  92.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  95.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 25.8N  98.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 25.4N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 26.5N 102.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     19/0600Z...INLAND DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC