ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/20. THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODELS TO HOLD ON TO A CIRCULATION FOR FIVE DAYS AND THESE MODELS SHOW A FIVE DAY POSITION NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE FURTHER SOUTH BUT ONLY CARRY A CIRCULATION FOR 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS. THIS UNCERTAINTY AFTER 72 HOURS IS A LITTLE MORE THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT PAST STORMS. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL DOES NOT SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KNOTS. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE PURE STATISTICAL...BRINGS THE WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 60 KNOTS BY DAY FOUR AND FIVE...BACKING OFF A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A STORM AS FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS POSTED FOR ST LUCIA AND DOMINICA. THE FRENCH ISLANDS CHOOSE TO WAIT A WHILE LONGER. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 13.3N 52.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.9N 55.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 59.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 15.5N 63.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 16.6N 67.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 19.0N 75.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 21.5N 80.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 24.0N 85.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC