ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED... AND THAT THE PRIMARY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS NOT VERY CURVED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/16...AS THE CYCLONE MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH 96 HR. THIS SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL GUIDANCE. AFTER 96 HR...THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL START TO DE-AMPLIFY RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION...THE CYCLONE COULD CONTINUE WESTWARD OR IT COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY IN LIGHT-SHEAR DEEP EASTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST 24-48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY...BUT SIMILAR FORECASTS DURING CLAUDETTE TENDED TO BE TOO FAST MOVING THE TROUGH ASIDE. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE MAY OUTRUN THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN A FASHION SIMILAR TO THAT OF CLAUDETTE. GIVEN THIS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEVEL OFF AT 65 KT AFTER 72 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 12.6N 46.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 12.9N 48.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 13.3N 51.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 13.9N 55.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 14.6N 58.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 16.0N 64.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 17.5N 70.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 19.5N 76.5W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC