Tropical Depression SIX

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  RECENT
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED... AND
THAT THE PRIMARY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS NOT VERY CURVED. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM
SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/16...AS THE CYCLONE
MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH 96 HR.  THIS SHOULD MOVE THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL
GUIDANCE.  AFTER 96 HR...THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THAT A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL START TO DE-AMPLIFY RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WOULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD.  DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION...THE CYCLONE COULD CONTINUE
WESTWARD OR IT COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK
FORECAST WILL TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY IN LIGHT-SHEAR DEEP
EASTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR AT
LEAST 24-48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY...BUT SIMILAR FORECASTS
DURING CLAUDETTE TENDED TO BE TOO FAST MOVING THE TROUGH ASIDE. 
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE MAY OUTRUN THE MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN A FASHION SIMILAR TO THAT OF CLAUDETTE. 
GIVEN THIS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH
THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEVEL OFF AT 65
KT AFTER 72 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 12.6N  46.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 12.9N  48.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 13.3N  51.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.9N  55.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 14.6N  58.1W    55 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N  64.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N  70.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N  76.5W    65 KT
 
 
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