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Hurricane DANNY


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 130/15.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING AROUND A
NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  ALL
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING AND IT IS FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 30
KNOTS BASES ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A CONTINUATION OF THE
ONGOING WEAKENING TREND.  AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THEN
WEST ...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATER AND LESS VERTICAL
SHEAR...BUT ALL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR NOTHING MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  FUTURE
INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FROM THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC..
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 40.4N  38.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 39.3N  37.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 37.3N  36.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 35.5N  36.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 34.0N  37.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 32.5N  40.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  44.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1800Z 32.0N  49.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC