Hurricane DANNY

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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 110/14.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH THE STORM MOVING AROUND A
NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  ALL
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IS A SMALL AREA LOCATED ABOUT 175
N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A 12Z SHIP REPORT OF 39 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 90 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  EVEN WITH A SMALL
POSITIVE BIAS...THE SHIP SUPPORTS A 40 KNOT INTENSITY AT 12Z.  WITH
A WEAKENING TREND IN PROGRESS...THE 15Z WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 35
KNOTS.  ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT PURE STATISTICAL CALLS FOR CONTINUED
WEAKENING AND DANNY IS FORECAST TO BE A 20 KNOT REMANT LOW IN 24
HOURS.  THE TRACK BRINGS DANNY OVER WARMER WATER AND UNDER LESS
VERTICAL SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS...BUT THE GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT DANNY WILL RE-INTENSIFY.

THE PENN STATE PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS DANNY TO BE COLD CORE.  WHILE
DANNY MAY NOT BE EXTRATROPICAL...IT IS CLEARLY NOT VERY TROPICAL
EITHER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 41.6N  40.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 40.6N  38.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 39.1N  36.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 37.5N  36.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 36.0N  36.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 34.5N  38.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 33.5N  41.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1200Z 33.0N  45.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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