Hurricane DANNY

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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003
 
DANNY HAS SHEARED OFF OVER THE COLDER NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65
KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AT 00Z.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE REDUCED TO 50 KT GIVEN THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS
OCCURRED SINCE 00Z...ALONG WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/12.  DANNY IS MOVING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC...AND ALL DATA INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN SHOULD BEGIN
IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR.  DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FORECAST DANNY TO PERFORM A LOOP AROUND THE RIDGE AND WIND UP
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.

DANNY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IT
MAY WELL BE A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
OR ITS REMAINS WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER IN FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THUS...
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DANNY COULD RE-GENERATE.  THIS WILL
REMAIN AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO UNTIL WE CAN SEE HOW MUCH OF DANNY
WILL REMAIN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 42.7N  43.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 42.4N  41.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 40.9N  38.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 39.1N  37.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 37.5N  37.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 35.5N  38.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 34.5N  41.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/0000Z 33.5N  44.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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