Hurricane DANNY

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HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SSM/I OVERPASS AT 18/2254Z
SHOWS THAT DANNY HAS A 15 NM WIDE EYE.  GOOD OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.  A NOTE ON THE
INTENSITY CONCERNS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.  NORMALLY A 65 KT ATLANTIC
HURRICANE HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 987 MB.  DANNY HAS BEEN
EMBEDDED IN VERY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES FOR ALL OF ITS LIFE...AND
THUS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS LIKELY MUCH HIGHER THAN 987 MB. 
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXACT PRESSURE.  THIS
PACKAGE WILL USE 1005 MB WITH GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE VALUE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/16.  DANNY IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES AND APPROACHING A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS
ROUGHLY ALONG 49W.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER THAT...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS.  DYNAMICAL
MODELS CALL FOR A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST... WHILE THE
NHC98 AND LBAR CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST
WILL FOLLOW THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CALL FOR DANNY...OR ITS
REMNANTS...TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
 
DANNY HAS PASSED OVER A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE 26C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM AND IS NOW MOVING INTO COLDER WATER. 
WEAKENING IS THUS LIKELY TO COMMENCE SHORTLY.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HR
AND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HR.  THE FORECAST SOUTHWARD TURN
COULD CARRY DANNY INTO WARMER WATER AFTER 48-72 HR.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY THAT TIME...AND IF DANNY SURVIVES THERE COULD BE
RE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT CALL FOR THAT
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR HOW MUCH OF DANNY WILL BE LEFT AFTER
THE NEXT 48-72 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 40.5N  50.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 41.8N  48.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 42.6N  44.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 42.1N  40.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 40.8N  38.7W    30 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 38.0N  37.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 35.5N  38.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     24/0000Z 32.5N  42.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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