ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003 DANNY HAS BECOME THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2003 SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT DANNY HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE. THIS IN GENERAL INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG SINCE DANNY IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COLD WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. DANNY...AS ANTICIPATED...IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IF DANNY SURVIVES...THE TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS BECOMES VERY INTERESTING. MOST OF THE MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LOOP DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY DAY 4 AND 5...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BACK OVER WARMER WATERS. BY THEN...IT WILL PROBABLY BE A REMNANT LOW OR A TROUGH...IF IT EXISTS AT ALL...AND TOO WEAK FOR REGENERATION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 39.6N 52.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 41.0N 50.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 42.5N 46.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 42.5N 42.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 41.5N 39.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 39.0N 37.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 22/1800Z 36.0N 38.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 42.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC