Hurricane DANNY

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HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003
 
DANNY HAS BECOME THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2003 SEASON. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT DANNY HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE.
THIS IN GENERAL INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED HURRICANE
STRENGTH. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG SINCE DANNY IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COLD WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN SOON. 

DANNY...AS ANTICIPATED...IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 15
KNOTS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IF DANNY SURVIVES...THE TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS
BECOMES VERY INTERESTING. MOST OF THE MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...LOOP DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
BY DAY 4 AND 5...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BACK
OVER WARMER WATERS.  BY THEN...IT WILL PROBABLY BE A REMNANT LOW OR
A TROUGH...IF IT EXISTS AT ALL...AND TOO WEAK FOR REGENERATION.
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 39.6N  52.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 41.0N  50.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 42.5N  46.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 42.5N  42.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 41.5N  39.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 39.0N  37.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 36.0N  38.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N  42.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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