Tropical Storm DANNY

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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003
 
DANNY IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
VERY WELL ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA.
IT HAS VERY WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD. WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS
AT THIS TIME BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...KGWC AND SAB.
IN FACT..LATEST SAB ESTIMATE SUGGESTS THAT DANNY IS A HURRICANE.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING COOLER WATERS SO...DANNY SHOULD BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND LATER TONIGHT.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS
AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
INCLUDING GFS AND NOGAPS KEEP DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS MOVING AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BY DAY 4 AND 5...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
ALREADY SOUTH OF THE HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
THIS SORT OF LOOP IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BUT BY
THEN DANNY SHOULD BE A REMANT LOW OR A TROUGH...IF IT EXISTS AT
ALL.   
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 38.7N  54.3W    60 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 40.5N  52.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 42.0N  48.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 43.0N  45.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 41.5N  40.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 40.0N  37.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 37.0N  36.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/1200Z 34.0N  40.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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