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Tropical Storm DANNY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/12.  THE GFS MODEL KEEPS A
DEEP-LAYER-MEAN ANTICYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 35N 50W FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE STORM AT NEAR 15 KNOTS AROUND
THE ANTICYCLONE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
FORECAST.  THERE IS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE IN THE 45-55 KNOT RANGE.  THE
OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS WITH A RECENT DECENT
BANDING FEATURE.  DANNY STILL HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER WARM WATER.
THEN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE STORM BY ABOUT 72 HOURS.
FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO
A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 37.8N  55.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 39.6N  54.1W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 41.6N  50.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 42.8N  46.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 42.6N  42.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 40.0N  37.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 37.0N  35.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     23/0600Z 34.5N  36.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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