Tropical Storm DANNY

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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
DANNY IS WELL ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL
UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP A BANDING-TYPE EYE DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT BUT THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT
VERY COLD. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON IN TROPICAL CYCLONES AT HIGH
LATITUDES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS...BASED
ON ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND KGWC. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...DANNY
HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 340 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. AS ANTICIPATED DANNY HAS
BEEN MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS..THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE ALREADY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF DANNY BUT THEY DO INDEED SHOW A
VORTMAX MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
LARGER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS A WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS. DANNY IS
FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 34.9N  56.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 36.3N  57.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 38.5N  55.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 40.5N  52.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 42.0N  49.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 42.5N  44.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 42.5N  40.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     22/1200Z 42.0N  37.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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