ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THE DEPRESSION DEVELOPED CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION. SINCE THEN...BANDING HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT...AND THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED ON THIS BASIS. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTHWEST AND EXCELLENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THE SURFACE CENTER IS LAGGING THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY 30 OR 40 MILES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. DANNY IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS MODELS. DANNY IS UNLIKELY TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS. WATER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND DANNY SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN SOME UNLESS THE SHEAR BECOMES UNEXPECTEDLY LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. ONCE DANNY GETS NORTH OF ABOUT 40 DEGREES LATITUDE...THE WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON IS WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. DANNY...THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...IS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FOURTH TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD. HOWEVER...PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SINCE 1900...ONLY TWO SEASONS HAVE PRODUCED THEIR FOURTH TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR EARLIER THAN JULY 16TH...1959 AND 1997. THESE TWO SEASONS PRODUCED ONLY 11 AND 8 TROPICAL STORMS...RESPECTIVELY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT 1997 WAS AN EL-NINO YEAR AND IS NOT A GOOD ANALOG FOR 2003. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 32.9N 55.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 34.0N 56.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 35.5N 56.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 37.5N 55.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 39.0N 54.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 41.5N 49.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 41.5N 43.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC