ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003 CLAUDETTE IS NOW A HURRICANE. THE FIRST OF THE 2003 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 84 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR UP-GRADING TO A HURRICANE. ON THE MOST RECENT PASS...AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 982 MB WAS REPORTED...A DROPSONDE MISSED THE EYE AND THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST SUGGESTED THIS WAS THE VALUE IF IT HAD HIT THE CENTER OF THE EYE. THE SYSTEM IS NOW VISIBLE ON COASTAL RADARS AND EARLIER SHOWED AN APPROXIMATELY 25 MILE DIAMETER EYE. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE EYE DIAMETER MAY BE GETTING SMALLER AND SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS. CLAUDETTE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND HAS INCREASED IT FORWARD SPEED...270/10. THIS WILL PUT THE STORM NEAR THE COAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND ALL MAINTAIN A SPEED OF ABOUT 10 KTS AFTER LANDFALL...WHICH WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM WELL INLAND AND WEAKEN IT VERY QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL. FORECASTER JARVINEN/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 28.0N 95.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 28.0N 96.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 28.3N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 16/1800Z 28.9N 101.6W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 17/0600Z 29.6N 104.6W 20 KT...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC