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Hurricane CLAUDETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003
 
CLAUDETTE IS NOW A HURRICANE. THE FIRST OF THE 2003 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON.  A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 84 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THIS IS
THE REASON FOR UP-GRADING TO A HURRICANE.  ON THE MOST RECENT
PASS...AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 982 MB WAS REPORTED...A DROPSONDE
MISSED THE EYE AND THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST SUGGESTED THIS WAS THE
VALUE IF IT HAD HIT THE CENTER OF THE EYE.  THE SYSTEM IS NOW
VISIBLE ON COASTAL RADARS AND EARLIER SHOWED AN APPROXIMATELY 25
MILE DIAMETER EYE.  DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR
ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE EYE DIAMETER MAY BE GETTING SMALLER AND
SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12
TO 18 HOURS.

CLAUDETTE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND HAS INCREASED IT
FORWARD SPEED...270/10.  THIS WILL PUT THE STORM NEAR THE COAST IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN CONSENSUS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS AND ALL MAINTAIN A SPEED OF ABOUT 10 KTS AFTER
LANDFALL...WHICH WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM WELL INLAND AND WEAKEN IT
VERY QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 28.0N  95.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 28.0N  96.7W    70 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 28.3N  99.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 28.9N 101.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 29.6N 104.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC