ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003 CLAUDETTE IS ALMOST A HURRICANE. ITS ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH AN EYE NOW VISIBLE ON RADAR. LAST RECON REPORTED 77 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OUTBOUND FROM THEIR LAST FIX...WHICH ADJUSTS TO ROUGHLY 60 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN YET BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DO SO SHORTLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW EXPANDING TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE AND DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET CONFIRM THAT THE SHEAR OVER CLAUDETTE IS STILL PRESENT BUT DECREASING. CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF TIME FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DO SO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ANOTHER FACTOR INHIBITING STRENGTHENING WILL BE A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT. THE LONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE WEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. NOW THAT CLAUDETTE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN THE U.S. SOUTHWEST...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE LESSENING...THE FORWARD SPEED COULD INCREASE A LITTLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 27.8N 94.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 28.0N 95.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 28.2N 97.0W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 16/1200Z 28.5N 99.0W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 17/0000Z 28.5N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 18/0000Z 28.5N 104.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC