Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003
 
CLAUDETTE IS STRUGGLING WITH SHEAR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORM
HAS HAD AT LEAST A PARTIAL EYEWALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO
AIRCRAFT DATA.  HOWEVER...RECENT HOUSTON WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE
EYEWALL IS LESS WELL DEFINED AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
CENTER IS CLOSE TO BECOMING EXPOSED.  THE NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATES
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE
WINDS INDICATING THE INTENSITY IS STILL 55 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SEVERAL OIL RIGS NEAR THE CENTER ARE REPORTING HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6.  THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
LONGER TERM MOTION OF 340/7 AND A SHORTER TERM MOTION SINCE 15Z
THAT IS SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS IS
THE START OF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN...BUT ALL AVAILABLE DATA
SUGGEST SUCH A TURN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 6-18 HR.  THUS...
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE
FORECAST TRACK NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON
THE INITIAL POSITION...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST IN 24-36 HR.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY
BE PRESENT SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDETTE...IT IS SO FAR NOT DOING MUCH TO
SHELTER THE STORM FROM THE SHEAR.  IN FACT...THE OUTFLOW LOOKS LESS
IMPREESIVE THAN 6 HR AGO.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
DEVELOPMENT.  ON THE OTHER HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND CLAUDETTE...WHICH WOULD ACT AS A BRAKE. 
SHIPS SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TO 82 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SUCH AS HAS OCCURRED FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS AS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.  AFTER LANDFALL...CLAUDETTE
SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 27.5N  93.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 27.9N  94.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 28.3N  95.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 28.7N  97.3W    45 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 29.0N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 29.0N 102.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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