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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003
 
CLAUDETTE IS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS MOVED INTO THE CONVECTION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE LAST
TWO FIXES FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NOTED AN
OPEN EYEWALL WAS PRESENT.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 991 MB AND
THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 65-70 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5.  MORNING RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD
SOON BE BLOCKED...AS CLAUDETTE IS ABOUT TO MEET A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE
AT 400 MB AND BELOW ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING
ABOUT THE TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
BY TRACK GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL
THE TURN OCCUR?  THE MODELS SUGGEST IT SHOULD OCCUR ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY...BUT THIS IS NOT YET SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE OR THE
OCCASIONAL APPEARANCE OF THE CENTER ON THE HOUSTON WSR-88D.  THE
TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
6-12 HR...FOLLWED BY THE TURN.  THE TRACK IS THEREFORE NUDGED NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  THIS TRACK
REQUIRES WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY BE FORMING
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDETTE.  THIS MAY HELP BRING ABOUT THE
TURN...AND MAY ALSO HELP SHELTER THE STORM FROM THE PERSISTENT
SHEAR.  INDEED...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE OUTFLOW IS ALREADY
IMPROVING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THIS WOULD ALLOW GREATER
DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE MOMENT AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND CLAUDETTE... WHICH
WOULD ACT AS A BRAKE ON DEVELOPMENT.  SHIPS SHOWS LITTLE
STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 90 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL
IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  AFTER LANDFALL...
CLAUDETTE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 26.9N  92.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 27.4N  93.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 27.8N  94.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 28.3N  96.3W    70 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 28.6N  98.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 29.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC