ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2003 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE STORM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND FOUND THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL AT 992 MB. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE 65 KTS...VERY SIMILAR TO EARLIER VALUES...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 55 KTS. BECAUSE THE STORM REMAINS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. ANY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ONE OF THESE BURSTS OF CONVECTION. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IT APPEARS THAT CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AND MAY BE STARTING TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REQUIRES AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. FORECASTER JARVINEN/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 26.3N 92.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 26.8N 93.1W 55 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 27.2N 94.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 27.5N 95.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 27.7N 97.3W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 17/0600Z 28.2N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/0600Z 29.0N 102.4W 15 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC