ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE STORM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 991 MB AND THEN BACK TO 992 MB. THE HIGHEST WIND IN THIS FLIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE 69 KNOTS RECORDED EARLIER TODAY. A PEAK WIND OF 68 KNOTS HAS JUST BEEN MEASURED. DUE TO THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND PRESSURE DROP...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR HAS NOT RELAX...SO THE CURRENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION MAY BE ONLY TEMPORARY AND SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN FIGHTING THE SHEAR AND A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ONE OF THESE BURSTS OF CONVECTION. CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE CENTER MOVING IN AND OUT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED AND CONTINUES TO BRING CLAUDETTE SLOWLY TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COASTS. CLAUDETTE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THEREFORE THE NECESSITY FOR WARNINGS HAS BEEN DELAYED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 25.7N 92.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 26.0N 92.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 26.5N 94.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 26.6N 95.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 26.7N 97.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 26.7N 99.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/0000Z 26.7N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC