ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003 THIS MORNINGS INTENSIFICATION IS OVER...FOR NOW...AS THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS MUCH BETTER DEFINED NOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.THE PRESSURE FELL TO AS LOW AS 994 MB EARLIER BUT IS NOW BACK UP TO 997 MB. THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT...BUT WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTER I AM NOT GOING TO BUMP THE ADVISORY INTENSITY UP AT THIS TIME. CLAUDETTE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN BUILDING THE LATTER RIDGE EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PULLS OUT. ONCE THIS OCCURS...A MORE DEFINITIVE WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS PROCESS IS GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THIS WILL DELAY THE NECESSITY FOR WARNINGS FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERNS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL HAVE MUCH TO SAY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CLAUDETTE...HELPING TO REINFORCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. AN OPPOSING POINT OF VIEW IS OFFERED BY THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH BRING A PIECE OF THE HIGH NORTHWARD TO PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. I AM HARD PRESSED AT THIS TIME TO FIND A REASON TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. OUR EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE STATUS AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 25.5N 92.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 26.0N 94.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 26.3N 95.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 26.5N 97.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 26.5N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 17/1800Z 26.5N 102.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 120HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC