ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003 AS YOGI BERRA SAID...ITS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN. CLAUDETTE LOOKS THE SAME AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. IT IS STILL BEING SHEARED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED. FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE RECON ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL...51 KTS VERSUS 52 KTS. THE INITIAL SURFACE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS. THE PRESSURE REMAINS AT 1005 MB. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE STORM IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OUTPUT OF THE SHIPS MODEL THAT DECREASES THE SHEAR FROM 18 TO 12 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE CYCLONE COULD BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. AFTER THE LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...CLAUDETTE HAS JOGGED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND SOME ADDITIONAL JOGS OR WOBBLES ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ON A GENERALLY WESTERLY COURSE. THIS WESTERLY COURSE IS DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 25.0N 92.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 25.4N 93.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 25.7N 94.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 25.9N 95.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 97.2W 60 KT...LANDFALL 72HR VT 16/0600Z 26.1N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 17/0600Z 26.2N 101.5W 20 KT...INLAND NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC