ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003 ITS JUST A STEP TO THE RIGHT...I THINK. CLAUDETTE HAS TAKEN A LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH TODAY...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 340/7. RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS OF 1008 CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 55 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING. CLAUDETTE IS WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM LOUISIANA WESTWARD...THE CURRENT TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO JUMP TO THE LEFT SHORTLY. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY OR EVEN WESTERLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE OVERALL STEERING CURRENT...AND THEREFORE A SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED AS LONG AS THE VORTEX CAN MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE. THE UPPER-LEVER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN CLAUDETTE IN A SHEARING FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION... THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS TIME. THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. ONE REMAINING CONCERN IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD RELAX SOME AFTER 48 HOURS AND PROVIDE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SPECIAL NOTE...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST APPEARS TO NO LONGER CALL FOR CLAUDETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...THIS IS BECAUSE THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POINT IS INLAND. CLAUDETTE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 24.7N 91.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 25.3N 92.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 25.8N 93.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 26.0N 94.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 26.0N 95.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 16/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 17/1800Z 25.5N 102.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC