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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003
 
ITS JUST A STEP TO THE RIGHT...I THINK. CLAUDETTE HAS TAKEN A LITTLE
JOG TO THE NORTH TODAY...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 340/7.
RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS OF 1008 CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 55 KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED.
 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING. CLAUDETTE
IS WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
WITH MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM
LOUISIANA WESTWARD...THE CURRENT TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO JUMP TO THE
LEFT SHORTLY. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY OR EVEN WESTERLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE OVERALL STEERING CURRENT...AND THEREFORE A
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED AS LONG AS THE VORTEX CAN MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE.
 
THE UPPER-LEVER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN CLAUDETTE IN A
SHEARING FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  IN ADDITION...
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS
TIME.  THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF A
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM.  ONE REMAINING CONCERN IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD RELAX SOME AFTER 48 HOURS AND PROVIDE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
 
SPECIAL NOTE...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST APPEARS TO NO LONGER
CALL FOR CLAUDETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...THIS IS BECAUSE THE 72
HOUR FORECAST POINT IS INLAND.  CLAUDETTE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 24.7N  91.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 25.3N  92.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 25.8N  93.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 26.0N  94.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 26.0N  95.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 26.0N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     17/1800Z 25.5N 102.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC