ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CLAUDETTE HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. IN FACT...THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER ONE. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN CHOSEN TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LARGER ROTATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND...1500 FEET...OF 60 KNOTS AND SEVERAL OTHER PEAKS OF 45 AND 50 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONG WINDS WERE MEASURED. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY OR SSW WINDS OVER CLAUDETTE INDICATING THAT THE SHEAR HAS NOT RELAXED AS ANTICIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE AND THE GFS IS LEAVING THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BUT KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT NOT FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...ONLY AN UNEXPECTED SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD BRING CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE STATUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315/11. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED BY DROPSONDES RELEASED FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET. THEREFORE... CLAUDETTE SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN THE CENTRAL GULF. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF CLAUDETTE...WILL FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE LASTEST TRACK MODEL RUN. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 22.9N 89.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 24.2N 91.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 25.0N 92.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 25.5N 93.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 26.0N 94.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 26.0N 96.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 26.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 17/0000Z 26.0N 101.5W 20 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC