Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CLAUDETTE HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION
BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. IN FACT...THERE ARE
SEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER ONE. THE
INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN CHOSEN TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LARGER
ROTATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REPORTED A MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND...1500 FEET...OF 60 KNOTS AND SEVERAL OTHER
PEAKS OF 45 AND 50 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB. THESE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DUE TO THE POOR
ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. 

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE
CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONG WINDS
WERE MEASURED. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY OR SSW
WINDS OVER CLAUDETTE INDICATING THAT THE SHEAR HAS NOT RELAXED AS
ANTICIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE AND THE GFS IS
LEAVING THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BUT KEEPS A
RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT NOT FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...ONLY AN UNEXPECTED SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD
BRING CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE STATUS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED ON THE MOTION
OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315/11. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED BY
DROPSONDES RELEASED FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET. THEREFORE...
CLAUDETTE SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN THE CENTRAL GULF. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A
RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF CLAUDETTE...WILL FORCE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND EVEN SOUTH OF
DUE WEST. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE LASTEST TRACK MODEL
RUN.   
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 22.9N  89.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 24.2N  91.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 25.0N  92.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 25.5N  93.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 26.0N  94.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 26.0N  96.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     17/0000Z 26.0N 101.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 
 
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