ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003 MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BROADLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THIS AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOWER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF CLAUDETTE...WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BETWEEN LARGE ANTICYCLONES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ENOUGH RIDGING REMAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF CLAUDETTE TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS CREATED BY THE TROUGH. AFTER 36 HR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD AND STEER CLAUDETTE MORE WESTWARD. MOST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH BAMD...NHC98...AND LBAR MOVE THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE WESTWARD TURN...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE IN ABOUT 96 HR. CLAUDETTE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND IN SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THIS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY PREVENT STRENGTHENING FOR 12-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY DEPENDS ON HOW A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DEVELOP THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND CANADIAN DEVELOP THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... WHICH WOULD EXPOSE THE STORM TO 15-30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS FEATURE TO PUT FULL FAITH IN THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY... STRENGTHENING COULD BE EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 21.6N 87.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 22.9N 88.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 24.3N 90.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 25.2N 91.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 25.8N 92.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 26.0N 95.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 26.0N 97.5W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 16/1200Z 26.0N 100.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC