ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003 THE RECON HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TIME FINDING A CENTER BUT DID REPORT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE MID 40 KT RANGE. HOWEVER...SHIP ELWX5...AUTOMATICALLY REPORTING AROUND EVERY 15 MINUTES...PAINTED A SURFACE WIND SPEED PROFILE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 50 KTS. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE CENTER FOR 0600 Z SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL AND THE FACT THAT CANCUN WAS REPORTING 20 KTS FROM THE EAST I DECIDED TO PUT A CENTER JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL. MY 0900 Z POSITION IS AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 0600 Z AND PUTS THE CENTER RIGHT AT THE SHORELINE JUST TO THE NORTH OF COZUMEL. ONCE CLAUDETTE MOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND RE-STRENGTHEN. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE MAY HAVE STALLED BRIEFLY...BUT IT SHOULD RESUME MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. LATER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND MISS THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING BY THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ONCE IT REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS..NOGAPS AND UK GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 21.0N 86.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 22.4N 88.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 23.9N 90.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 25.2N 92.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 25.8N 93.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 26.2N 95.2W 70 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 26.2N 97.2W 70 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 26.2N 99.1W 20 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC