Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003
 
THE RECON HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TIME FINDING A CENTER BUT DID REPORT
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE MID 40 KT RANGE.  HOWEVER...SHIP
ELWX5...AUTOMATICALLY REPORTING AROUND EVERY 15 MINUTES...PAINTED A
SURFACE WIND SPEED PROFILE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A MAXIMUM
VALUE OF 50 KTS.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.

SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE CENTER FOR 0600 Z SUGGESTED THAT THE
CENTER WAS TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL AND THE FACT THAT CANCUN WAS
REPORTING 20 KTS FROM THE EAST I DECIDED TO PUT A CENTER JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL. MY 0900 Z POSITION IS AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE 0600 Z AND PUTS THE CENTER RIGHT AT THE SHORELINE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF COZUMEL.   
 
ONCE CLAUDETTE MOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT
SHOULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND RE-STRENGTHEN. ALL THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A HURRICANE IN 48
HOURS.
 
SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE MAY HAVE STALLED
BRIEFLY...BUT IT SHOULD RESUME MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS. LATER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND MISS THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING BY THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST ONCE IT REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3
DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS..NOGAPS AND UK GLOBAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 21.0N  86.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 22.4N  88.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 23.9N  90.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 25.2N  92.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 25.8N  93.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 26.2N  95.2W    70 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 26.2N  97.2W    70 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 26.2N  99.1W    20 KT...INLAND
 
 
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