ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003 THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM A RECON. IT APPEARS THAT EITHER THE CENTER BRIEFLY MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED OR REFORMED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. CLAUDETTE NOW CONSISTS OF A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN CONVECTIVE BANDS. IN FACT...THE RECON HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A TRUE CENTER AND THE POSITION USED HERE IS BASED ON SATELLITE AND A FEW WIND SHIFTS REPORTED BY THE RECON. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45 KNOTS AND THAT IS PROBABLY OVERESTIMATED. BECAUSE THE SUDDEN AND UNEXPECTED WEAKENING OF CLAUDETTE...AND THE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR YUCATAN HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ONCE CLAUDETTE MOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT HAS A CHANGE TO RE-STRENGTHEN. IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH INSIST ON FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE ALL THE UPS AND DOWN IN THE STRUCTURE OF CLAUDETTE...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED. CLAUDETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. THIS MOTION PROBABLY INCLUDES THE ALLEDGED REFORMATION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND MISS THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING BY THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ONCE IT REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS..NOGAPS AND UK GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 20.0N 85.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 21.5N 87.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 24.5N 91.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 25.5N 93.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 26.0N 94.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 26.0N 96.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 26.0N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC